Could Shake Shack Crumble On Earnings This Quarter?

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Consumer Discretionary – Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports May 11, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 7 cents on $53 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on top

In the last 4 quarters, SHAK has posted an average EPS surprise of 162%, and YoY growth of 200 – 900%

Shake Shack continues to attract new customers and increase traffic with new menu items such as the Chick’N Shack

What are you expecting for SHAK? Get your estimate in here!

Shake Shack’s cult following and successful expansion hasn’t been enough to save its stock. The burger joint has suffered a similar fate as many new public companies. Robust earnings and growth just aren’t enough investors who want more. Shares are now down over 50% after hitting its peak of $92 at the end of May 2015. This quarter, earnings are expected to come in strong as usual, but slower than previous quarters. It may also be the first time that Shake Shack fails to break 100% growth on the bottom line.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 7 cents on $53 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on top. Compared to a year earlier earnings are predicted to grow 85% with sales climbing 40%. On average, the stock is a positive mover leading up to earnings but then turns negative after earnings likely due to weak forward guidance.

In the last 4 quarters, SHAK has posted an average EPS surprise of 162%, and YoY growth of 200 – 900%. Revenue growth was also impressive in 2015, increasing 47%+ each quarter. Arguably the more important metric for this company is same shack sales, which increased 11% in Q4, and 13.3% in 2015. The outlook for 2016 isn’t as impressive, with the company guiding for same shack sales between 2.5 and 3.0%.