2018’s January US winter wheat seedings provided a new surprise to the market. Instead of this year’s US producer survey showing a significantly lower-than-expected planting level than the trade’s estimate like 28 out of last 29 years, this month’s seedings were 1.5 million higher and only 88,000 acres less than last year. (see Jan. 16  update) US winter wheat plantings have dropped nearly 10 million acres from 2014-2017 and this year’s seedingsremain near 1909’s all-time low 29.9 million acres level.

This year’s strong SW US feeder cattle grazing profit potential seems to be the factor in this year’s higher-than-expected US Plains seedings. In the three leading hard red wheat states of Kansas (+200,000), Oklahoma (-400,000) and Texas (+300,000), plantings were up 100,000 acres vs. last year’s 2.1 million lower seedings. This trend curtailed the downward decline in hard red’s seedings to a 358,000 drop vs. ideas of 1 million or more decline from the trade.

This survey also revealed a 247,000 acre increase in soft red and a 23,000 jump in white wheat plantings on this month’s report. Dryness across the Southern US could cut 2018’s harvested area like last year, but potential for double cropping soybeans in the Eastern Midwest and the SE US must have been behind many producers decision to modestly expand their soft red wheat plantings in these areas.

Given spring wheat’s price premiums and regional growing conditions, some durum and lost winter wheat seedings in the N. Plains will likely go to this wheat variety during spring planting. However, overall US wheat seedngs may have just a 150,000 acre rise from 2017. Even with a modest rebound in harvested area and 1 bu.increase in the US average yield to 47.3 (back to trend), 2018/19’s US wheat stocks have a strong likelihood of another drop, primarily because of the current year’s 200 million drop in stocks.