Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages rate of growth also improved.

Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales

Even though there is seen a significant improvement – it was a weak bounce back from the previous month’s solf reports.

Things to consider when viewing this data:

  • it is not inflation adjusted.
  • the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data significantly slowed
  • still, our analysis says this months’ year-over-year growth was about average for the growth seen in the last 12 months..
  • The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment do not correlate.

    Backward data revisions were upward.

    Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 1.1 % month-over-month, and up5.1 % year-over-year.
  • unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.5 % month-over-month, up 4.8 % year-over-year.
  •  

  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 3.3 % year-over-year
  • this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
  • in the seasonally adjusted data – the major strengths were automotive and non-store retailers.
  • U.S. Census Headlines:

  • seasonally adjusted sales down 0.6 % month-over-month, up 4.5 % year-over-year.
  • the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
  • seasonally adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.8 % +0.4 % +0.6% Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.0 % to 0.4 % +0.2 % +0.2 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.3 % to 0.5 % +0.5 % +0.3 % Control Group – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.6 % +0.5 % +0.4 %
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