According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate was 2.2 % – growing from than last month’s 1.9 %. The year-over-year core inflation (excludes energy and food) rate was again unchanged 1.7 %, and is below the target set by the Federal Reserve.

Analyst Opinion of the Consumer Price Index

Energy was the driver for the increase in inflation – and maybe much of the blame goes to the hurricanes. Core inflation remain below 2 % year-over-year

The market expected (from Bloomberg / Econoday):

  Consensus Range Consensus Actual CPI-U – month-over-month (MoM) 0.3 % to 0.7 % +0.6 % +0.5% CPI-U year-over-year (YoY) 2.0 % to 2.4 % +2.3 % +2.2 % CPI less food & energy (MoM) 0.1 % to 0.3 % +0.2 % +0.1 % CPI less food & energy (YoY) 1.7 % to 1.8 % +1.8 % +1.7 %

As a generalization – inflation accelerates as the economy heats up, while inflation rate falling could be an indicator that the economy is cooling. However, inflation does not correlate well to the economy – and cannot be used as a economic indicator.

The major influence on the CPI was again energy prices.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent.

The gasoline index increased 13.1 percent in September and accounted for about three-fourths of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. Other major energy component indexes were mixed, and the food index rose slightly.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in September. The shelter index continued to increase, and the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, recreation, education, and wireless telephone services also rose. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and used cars and trucks.

The all items index rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending September; the 12-month change has been accelerating since it was 1.6 percent in June. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 1.7 percent for the fifth month in a row. The energy index rose 10.1 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2017. The food index increased 1.2 percent over the last year.