‘Life is a school of probabilities.’

Walter Bagehot

Stocks were largely unchanged today. There are going to be watching Jay Powell’s first FOMC meeting as Chairman when they issue their decision and guidance tomorrow afternoon.

Gold and silver were off a bit, based on a stronger ‘King Dollar’ as Larry Kudlow likes to say.

I thought it was interesting that China has apparently given some signals that in response to any US trade tariffs they might be inclined to take some action in the debt and currency markets. 

The Fed is widely expected to raise their benchmark rate by 25 bp tomorrow. To do anything else would likely shock the markets. Since they are raising rates for their own purposes, to get as far off the zero bound as possible before this latest asset bubble collapses, I imagine that they will keep pressing on until the economy starts to sputter so obviously that there will be no denying it.

I hope this is not one of those scenarios where the first undeniable indication of a serous problem will be a heart attack in the equity and bond markets.

So they will be updating their wording and ‘dot plots’ possibly, and traders will be watching to see if they indicate three or four rate hikes in 2018.It’s not clear to me that it makes a beans worth of practical difference whether the Fed raises three or four times this year.But this is the kind of thing that these money-printed, risk-mispricing markets like to do.

It appears that this latest nor’easter named Toby is going to be much less benign than originally forecast, and is going to be clobbering the NYC metro and tri-state area tomorrow with about a foot of snow. 

Dolly and I are enjoying some home made soup, and snuggling down for a long winter’s day tomorrow.I think the young man will be spending the night since NYU will be closed tomorrow.He and Dolly have a remarkable rapport. 

This is the fourth nor-easter we have had in three weeks. Its nice not to have to go anywhere if you don’t want to.Just like its nice not to have to play in these utterly crooked markets.


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