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My research is indicating that the U.S. stock market bull market has run out of steam. Overall market gains were strong and steady from the bear market bottom in March 2009 through the end of 2014. In contrast, over the last 16 months the market has gone nowhere and volatility has been high. To make money in this type of market requires a different strategy.

Subsequent to the October 2007 to March 2009 Bear market (during which the major market indexes lost about 50% of their values) investors got a ride on a nearly six-year long bull market. From that March bottom through the end of 2014, the overall market, as indicated by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY), gained 170% with only one meaningful correction along the way, in the fall of 2011.

Looking back, the bull market has produced two effects. First, anyone who bought shares at anytime from 2009 through mid 2014 has some nice gains sitting in their brokerage account. (Excluding energy sector stocks, which experienced a sector bear market from late 2014 through February 2016.) The second effect is that historical returns now show attractive numbers, which will attract individual investor money back into the market. For example, the SPY ETF now reports a 5-year average annual return of 11.4% and a 10-year average return of 6.9%. Even stronger, the Nasdaq 100 index as tracked by the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (Nasdaq: QQQ) has a five-year average return of 13.7% and the 10-year average is in double digits at 10.6%. It’s like the last bear market never happened.

However, just as those attractive historical return numbers will continue to pull investors back into the market, the bull has gone to sleep. This chart shows the SPY value from the end of 2014 through the present: