My Swing Trading Approach

On Friday, I added one new position to the portfolio, which was in the tech sector. With my portfolio is mostly in cash (70%)  and 20% tech, any additional trades will be outside of the sector. I also will look to tighten my stops in my existing trades where feasible. Volume in the broader market will be a large influence for how much additional exposure I add. 

Indicators

  • Volatility Index (VIX) – Continued its selling following a retest of the declining trend-line last week. Good chance, we see another drop down into the 11’s before a pop higher again. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): Two solid days of increases has T2108 over 55% – still a major bearish divergence in this indicator.
  • Moving averages (SPX): Reclaimed the 10-day moving average and now trading above all the major MA’s. The 5-day MA never crossed the 20-day to the downside. 
  • Sectors to Watch Today

    Materials represented the bulk of the day’s gains. Real Estate breaking out to the upside and hitting new all-time highs. Staples still piling on the profits of late with gains in three of the last four days and coming out of a major basing pattern. Industrials showing similar behavior and could be ready to make a move back all its all-time highs as well. Nothing going in Energy and the double top forming is a big concern. 

    My Market Sentiment

    This whole month has been as slow as it can be. The 2801 level will be key for the bulls to hold going forward, and the overhead resistance depicted in the chart below will likely create a profit-taking area for trades. 

    S&P 500 Technical Analysis

    Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance

  • 3 Long Positions
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