The Australian dollar fell on fears of trade wars and ahead of the Fed decision. The upcoming week features important events from Australia: the jobs report and also the RBA meeting minutes. Will the pair recover? Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Chinese industrial output rose by 7.2% in February, much better than expected and an encouraging sign for Australia. However, Trump’s ongoing push for tariffs and the fear of trade wars weighed on the Australian dollar, a risk asset. The upcoming Fed decision also pushed the greenback higher.


AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • CB Leading Index: Monday, 14:30. The Conference Board’s composite index has shown a decline of 0.3% in the economy in December. We’ll now get the first figure for 2018.
  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. These are the minutes from the March decision in which the RBA left the interest rates unchanged as expected with a balanced tone. The minutes may reveal how worried the team led by Phillip Lowe is worried about growing household debt and wages and what they see in the global economy.
  • HPI: Tuesday, 00:30. Housing remains a worry in Australia after prices ballooned, especially in Sydney. In Q3, the HPI dropped by 0.2% and a small rise of 0.1% is projected in Q4 2018. The official figure may also point to a drop.
  • Michele Bullock talks Tuesday, 4:15. The RBA Assistant Governor for Financial Markets will speak about technology in Sydney and may also refer to monetary policy.
  • MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The Melbourne Institute’s composite index has a shown a slide of 0.2% in its gauge for the Australian economy, similar to the figure published by the CB. A similar number is likely now.
  • Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. In January, Australia reported a small rise in employment, 16K, within expectations but below the levels seen in previous months. The unemployment rate stood at 5.5%. While the job market looks good, policymakers are becoming worried about slow rises in wages and household debt. A tightening of the labor market will help relieve these worries and push the Aussie higher. A gain of 20.3K positions is on the cards and the unemployment rate carries expectations for 5.5%.
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