August 2018 Headline New Home Growth Improves

Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen

The headlines say new home sales improved. Median sales prices were lower – and backlog of unsold homes grew.

Analyst Opinion of New Home Sales

This month the backward revisions were downward. Because of weather and other factors, the rolling averages are the way to view this series. This month was better than last month – and the rolling averages improved.

This data series is suffering from methodology issues which manifest as significant backward revision. Home sales move in spurts and jumps – so this is why we view this series using a three month rolling average.

Econintersect analysis:

unadjusted sales growth accelerated 2.8 % month-over-month.

unadjusted year-over-year sales 11.1 % year-over-year. Year-over-year growth rate this month was midrange of growth seen last 12 months.

three month unadjusted trend rate of growth accelerated 0.5 % month-over-month – is up 6.0 % year-over-year.

US Census Headlines:

seasonally adjusted sales up 3.5 % month-over-month

seasonally adjusted year-over-year sales up 12.7 %

market expected (from Econoday) seasonally adjusted annualized sales of 608 K to 650 K (consensus 630 K) versus the actual at 629 K.

The quantity of new single family homes for sale remains well below historical levels.

Seasonally Adjusted New Homes for Sale

The headlines of the data release:

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.5 percent (±13.7 percent)* above the revised July rate of 608,000 and is 12.7 percent (±20.7 percent)* above the August 2017 estimate of 558,000.

Unadjusted New Home Sales Monthly Volumes In Thousands

The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2018 was $320,200. The average sales price was $388,400. [last month: The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2018 was $328,700. The average sales price was $394,300.]