Here are the currencies and commodities that do well or poorly in January, historically. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. 

Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do no reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.

Statistics are run on USD Index, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/MXN, NZD/USD for currencies and on Light Crude, Natural Gas, Corn, Gold, Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar, and Wheat for commodities. Applicable ETFs are also discussed.

Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise/fall in October more than 65% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 65% threshold may also be discussed. Applicable ETFs are also mentioned.

Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders.

Forex Seasonality For January

The USD Index has risen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), moving up by an average of 1.3% in January.

The PowerShares US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has rallied in 5 of the last 9 years, gaining 1% on average during January.

The USDCAD has risen in 13 of the last 20 years (65%), moving up by an average of 0.9% in January.

The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) has only rallied once in January in the last 10 years. In other words, it has fallen 90% of the time, and declines on average -1.8%.

The USDCHF has risen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), moving up by an average of 1.2% in January.

The CurrencyShares Swiss FrancTrust (FXF) has fallen 60% of the time over the last 10 years, declining on average -0.2% in January.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email