BTC/USD DAILY CHART (LOG)

Technical Outlook: Earlier this month we documented the objective break of the January opening-range in Bitcoin prices as the decline was approaching initial support targets. We were looking, “for signs of a near-term exhaustion low in price for the rebound – but ultimately looking lower.”

Indeed price did rebound as high as 13052 before reversing sharply with the decline now once again approaching key confluence support at 8337-8643– a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the July advance, the 100% extension of the decline off the record highs and basic slope support off the late-December low. Resistance remains with the monthly opening range lows at 12801 with bearish invalidation now lowered to the slope confluence at~14400/44 (note the monthly / yearly open at 13880).

BTC/USD 240MIN CHART (LOG)

Notes: A closer look at price action sees Bitcoin breaking below a near-term consolidation pattern with the decline now approaching the January lows / 61.8% retracement of the September advance at 9300/03. If this break is legit, near-term rallies should be capped by 11160 with a break lower targeting 8643-8729backed by the lower parallel / 8337– area of interest for near-term exhaustion / long-entries IF reached.

Bottom line: I’ll favor fading strength while below 11160 for now targeting structural support. A break below this near-term downslope would be needed to suggest a much larger correction is underway with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support objectives at the 200-day moving average, currently around ~7675.

BITCOIN IG CLIENT SENTIMENT