The fact that Bitcoin has recently hit an all-time high has already fueled wild speculation in the market and we are now seeing increased interest in the currency. The mainstream media are now full of articles on the meteoric rise of Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and the prospects of cryptocurrencies. In an article on Bloomberg, we read:

It seems like everyone is coming up with a price forecast these days, with some of the biggest banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jumping into the action, while speculators to long-time investors are also making their bets.

The consensus is that the biggest cryptocurrency will face some resistance around $4,500 to $4,800 and correct, to then continue rallying. How high? Pantera Capital Management’s Paul Veradittakit, Tom Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors and John Spallanzani at GFI Group Inc. see it going to $6,000 by year-end, while Ronnie Moas at Standpoint Research says it will keep rising to $7,500 in 2018.

Bitcoin has been on a tear this year, more than tripling in value as it crossed the $4,000 mark and touched a record $4,477 last week. It’s since retreated about 7 percent from the high as investors took profit and assessed whether the rally had gone too far. Growing adoption and institutional investor interest, agreement on a mechanism to speed up transactions and regulatory steps that will help the asset broaden its reach are some of the reasons that explain the gains.

The point at which a lot of “experts” start expressing a lot of opinion on an asset might mean that a lot of the appreciation is already behind us. And this might be the case with Bitcoin. Particularly striking is the list of potential “reasons” supporting the move up. Growing adoption? Institutional interest? Not much of that in the market, at least not now. The point about improved transactions might have some merit to it but the problem here is that the Segregated Witness protocol and other tweaks to Bitcoin are only one step on a long road make transactions quick and seamless. However, the market might have actually taken SegWit and Bitcoin Cash as legitimate long-term solutions, or at least tectonic shifts in how Bitcoin works. While both SegWit and Bitcoin Cash are interesting attempts to rectify some of Bitcoin’s faults, they might have been triggers or accelerants of the move rather than lasting solutions.