Some are bullish on oil because Trump threatens to kill the deal with Iran. It’s faulty thinking. Way faulty.

Oil analysts claim the Tillerson ouster is bullish for oil.

Rex #Tillerson ouster bullish for #oil (bearish for #IranDeal) analysts like @JoeMcMonigle say via @dan_graeber @crudeoilprices

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) March 14, 2018

Joseph McMonigle writing for HedgEye says Tillerson’s Departure Signals End of Iran Nuclear Deal & Higher Oil Prices.

  • Trump’s decision to replace Tillerson surely signals the end of the Iran nuclear deal. While a reluctant Trump issued another waiver of Iran oil sanctions in January, he warned that it was the last waiver unless the agreement is changed to address his concerns.
  • Re-imposing US oil sanctions on Iran would put as much as one million barrels a day of Iranian crude exports at risk of being removed from global markets. Such a move would inject significant geopolitical instability in oil markets and likely send oil prices higher.
  • Trump’s new Secretary of State-nominee Mike Pompeo is aligned with Trump on the Iran policy. He had been a leading opponent of the Iran nuclear deal when he was a Member of Congress.
  • I strongly disagree for political reasons and economic reasons. Throw in sentiment for good measure.

    Political: Trump is a Lone Wolf

    Unless the ECB also puts sanctions on Iran, trump will be an ineffective lone wolf.

    There is no reason to believe the ECB will go along with Trump. The ECB despises Trump.

    On July 30, 2017, the Financial Tribune announced a Six-Fold Rise in EU Oil Imports From Iran.

    That going to change because of Trump? Exports to China going to change because of Trump?

    No, to both.

    On January 16, 2018, Reuters reported India’s imports of Iran oil in Dec scheduled to rise to most since March.

    Exports to India going to change because of Trump?


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