GDP growth in Q1 has been lower in the past years, few consistent with residual seasonality. 

Figure 1: Real GDP growth, actual (bold black), forecast of NY Fed Nowcast 3/16 (green), Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3/16 (red), Goldman-Sachs 3/19 (red), Macroeconomic Advisers 3/16 (blue), Merrill Lynch 3/19 (blue), q/q SAAR. Source: CR, Macro Advisers, Goldman-Sachs.

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