It’s “Super Thursday” and although the real fireworks (if there are any) aren’t set to begin until later, it was indeed an interesting overnight session.

We’ll start in Japan where GDP data missed badly. Here’s the quick breakdown:

  • Japan Revised 1Q GDP Rises Annualized 1%; Est. +2.4%
  • GDP rises 0.3% q/q; est. +0.6%
  • Nominal GDP falls 0.3% q/q; est. 0%
  • Private consumption rises 0.3% q/q; est. +0.4%
  • Business spending rises 0.6% q/q; est. +0.5%
  • “The Japanese government’s second estimate for Jan-Mar (1Q) 2017 real GDP came in at +1.0% qoq annualized, a sharp downward revision from +2.2% in the preliminary reading, and in stark contrast to the market and our forecast for a slight upward revision (+2.4%),” Goldman wrote, before noting that “this was mainly attributable to inventory, and the Japanese economy still looks to be trending firmly once this volatile factor is stripped out.”

    Ultimately, this was overshadowed by reports that the BoJ is starting to think about changing its forward guidance to communicate an intention to normalize policy. Here’s Bloomberg:

    The Bank of Japan is re-calibrating its communications to acknowledge that it is thinking about how to handle a future exit from monetary stimulus, without giving the impression that this is on the agenda anytime soon, people with knowledge of discussions at the central bank told Bloomberg’s Toru Fujioka and Masahiro Hidaka.

    With inflation still far below target, the BOJ is contending with increasing debate of exit in markets, the media and among some lawmakers.

    Note that’s entirely consistent with what we discussed on Wednesday in “Josephine Witt’s Reign Is Over Or, Central Banks May Actually Mean It This Time,” and of course coincides with what’s expected to be a change in the ECB’s tone today.

    The reaction in USD/JPY was swift:

    jpy

     

    “Leveraged accounts shorted USD/JPY on reaction to a Bloomberg News report that the Bank of Japan said to be conducting simulations internally on how an exit from monetary stimulus could play out,” an Asia-based FX trader said, adding that “the fact that BOJ is giving insight to their internal debate at all is seen as bearish by clients.”

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