After a big surprise jump in August, preliminary durable goods orders for September were expected to drop 1.5% MoM but surprised to the upside with a modest 0.8% rise. However, ex-transports, durable goods orders have stagnated for five months

Headline looks ‘ok’…

But Ex-Transports it has gone nowhere…

With Capital Goods Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft down for the second month in a row giving us a hint of what is driving the headline –Defense Aircraft new orders surge 119% MoM…

to its highest since 2001…

All hail the military-industrial complex! So what happens if Congress pushes Trump to cut off the Saudis? Recession?

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