Crude Oil Forecast: Iran Drops ’B’-Word On US, Prices Stay Elevated

Crude Oil Forecast: Iran Drops 'B'-Word on US, Prices Stay Elevated

Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Bullish

Talking Points:

The ONE Thing: Bets are rising that Trump will exit the Iran Accord on May 12 after Israeli PM Netanyahu called Iran liars, only to have Iran call Trump a bully. It seems like Trumps style is catching on.

The popular move is to talk about how much oil production is coming out of the US, record numbers in fact, but the more impactful change in production is coming from the lack of OPEC production as OPEC looks to over-tighten the market

Per BHI, U.S. Oil Rig Count rises 9 rigs to 834, US total rig count up 11 to 1,032

The technical analysis picture of Crude Oil clearly shows price trading above multiple forms of support. Key support comes from technical analysis tool, Ichimoku that shows support on the Daily chart at $65.69 and lower still at $62.21.

IGCS shows net-short retail positioning in WTI – US Oil, favoring bullish pressure

Trump is making a bigly impact in the world of geopolitical politics and its helping crude oil traders with long exposure. 18-months after US president Donald Trump’s presidential victory that sent stocks higher and the US Dollar aggressively higher still, other world leaders have taken to his brand of calling them like they see em’.

The Iran Decision – The Next Shoe to Drop In The Market

Crude Oil Forecast: Iran Drops 'B'-Word on US, Prices Stay Elevated

Two week’s ahead of Trump’s decision as to whether or not the US will exit the Iran accord and introduce sanctions on the third largest producer of OPEC, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, who is Trump’s close ally, gave an artful presentation with PowerPoint on live television calling Tehran liars.

The presentation said that Tehran has been lying about pulling back on nuclear advancement and he made his case by revealing ‘secret nuclear files’ from Tehran.

Not to be outdone, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded this week by saying they would not negotiation on such grounds and that the US is “bullying” Iran by potentially imposing sanctions that would withdraw capital from the country.