Yesterday, President Trump continued to shake-up his administration by replacing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CBI director Mike Pompeo. Even before this most recent move, the turnover rate among high-level staff and cabinet members has been higher than under any other president in the past 40 years. As a result, political uncertainty remains elevated.

On the economic front, U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday did not really help the dollar. Retail sales fell, offsetting a stronger-than-forecast rise in domestic producer prices last month
After the European Central Bank dropped a long-standing pledge last week to increase its bond buying if needed, investors are looking for clues to its next move. ECB President said today: “There is a very clear condition for us to bring net asset purchases to an end: we need to see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards our aim.”

This is how we trade today:

EUR/USD

Trading strategy: Long

Open: 1.2330

Target: 1.2580

Stop-loss: 1.2210

Recommended size: 1.67 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: Our long remains but progress is difficult. The pair’s latest rally was capped by the trend-line off February’s high. The ensuing slide has daily RSI now biased down. We do see encouraging signs though. The 10 and 21-day SMAs limit the downside and monthly RSI is biased up.

Previous position: Short opened at 1.2300, profit taken at 1.2180, earned: 120 pips, $328 per $10,000 in your account.

GBP/USD

Trading strategy: Long

Open: 1.3780

Target: 1.4100

Stop-loss: 1.3640

Recommended size: 1.07 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: Daily momentum remains positive. The 7-day EMA is going to break above the 14-day ema, which would be a strong bullish signal. We remain long for 1.4100.

Previous position: Short opened at 1.3930. Profit taken at 1.3770, earned: 160 pips, $301 per $10,000 in your account.

USD/JPY

Trading strategy: Sell