The USD recovery is seen across the board today as investors are preparing for the Fed meeting next week. It is widely expected that the Fed will deliver another 25bp rate hike, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.50% to 1.75%.

The main focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections, in particular, the growth forecasts and FOMC members’ interest-rate projections. The stronger growth outlook, coupled with increased confidence that the inflation target will be hit, should also lead some FOMC members to revise up their interest-rate projections.

This is how we trade today:


Trading strategy: Short

Open: 1.2310

Target: 1.2200

Stop-loss: 1.2365

Recommended size: 3.64 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The EUR/USD is back below 30-day SMA. The market is testing 1.2266 level, 61.8% retrace of the 1.2155 to 1.2447 March rise. A break below this level would open the way to our target.

Previous position: Long opened at 1.2330, position closed at 1.2310, lost: 20 pips, $33 per $10,000 in your account.


Trading strategy: Short

Open: 1.3930

Target: 1.3830

Stop-loss: 1.3980

Recommended size: 3.00 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The GBP remains quite resilient to renewed USD strength, but we think that deeper corrective move is still possible here given hawkish expectations ahead of FOMC meeting.

Previous position: Long opened at 1.3780. Profit taken at 1.3930, earned: 150 pips, $161 per $10,000 in your account.


Trading strategy: Await signal




Recommended size:

Short analysis: The USD/JPY’s scope is for an eventual drop to test the 105.24 2018 low and then the 105.00 psychological level which will likely prove tough to crack. Falling 30-DMA which stemmed bulls on Tuesday is now at 107.09, bears remain in control while below.

Previous position: Short opened at 106.20. Stop-loss hit at 107.20. Lost: 100 pips, $150 per $10,000 in your account.

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