Miners have dropped enough to support the formation of a daily cycle low. However, the correction thus far in gold and silver has been minimal, and it would create another shallow retracement if metals bottomed Friday. The odds of back-to-back shallow corrections is low. Consequently, I prefer to wait for a swing low to form before attempting to play the next rally.

Furthermore, Gold and Silver formed Weekly Bearish Engulfing candles, supporting the possibility of a 6-Month cycle high. Prices would have to close above last week’s highs (weekly basis) to extend this cycle. Although new cycle highs are possible, the sharp selling and glaring divergence in miners are more suggestive of a top.

Oil looks like it may be in the process of rolling over, and I’ll monitor prices closely next week. If prices fail to retake the $54.25 level, we could see an accelerated decline. I’ll probably buy put options in oil futures if a sell triggers

The unemployment report Friday, March 10th and the next Fed meeting (March 15th), could trigger a market event. The probability for a March increase remained at 79.7% after Yellen’s speech. The odds will vacillate before the meeting; over 80% sponsors a rate hike.

-US DOLLAR- The dollar reversed after breaking above the 101.75 level, completing a swing high. An interim top could be in place. However, a daily close below 100.90 is required to confirm a top.

-GOLD WEEKLY- Another Bearish Engulfing pattern formed and the upswing from December may have ended. A weekly close below $1,200 would confirm a 6-Month Cycle high. The decreasing volume ridge reset with this week’s Bearish Engulfing candle.

-GOLD DAILY- Prices are dropping into a daily cycle low after reaching the 200-day MA. The decline into Friday’s low is nearly identical to the previous low ($1,179) established in January (quick & shallow). It’s possible the cycle bottomed, but I’d like to see a daily close above $1,245 to be sure.