Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of August 13

       

August 14

       

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index – July

107.5

107.2

107

           

Export Prices – July

0.1%

0.3

0.2

 

Import Prices

0.1

-0.4

0.0

           

August 15

       

Retail Sales – July

0.3%

0.5

0.1

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.4

0.4

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

0.3

0.4

           

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

20.6

22.6

20.0

           

Productivity – Q2 (p)

2.5%

0.4

2.5

 

Unit Labor Costs

-0.4

-0.4

-.02

           

Industrial Production – July

0.3%

0.6

0.3

 

Manufacturing

0.4

0.8

0.3

 

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.0

78.2

           

Business Inventories – June

0.2%

0.4

0.1

 

NAHB Index

69

68

69

           

August 16

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

216

213

215

           

Housing Starts – July

1.256M

1.173

1.271

 

Building Permits

1.305

1.273

1.304

           

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.8

25.7

22.3

           

August 17

       

Leading Economic Indicators

0.5%

0.5

0.4

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)

98.3

97.9

97.9

           

Week of August 20

       

August 22

       

Existing Home Sales – July

5.509M

5.380

             

August 23

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

FHFA Home Price Index – June

0.6%

0.2

             

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

55.3

55.3

   

PMI Services Flash

57.0

56.0

             

New Home Sales – July

649K

631

   

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

25

23

             

August 24

       

Durable Goods Sales – July

1.5%

0.8

   
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