EM FX was mostly stronger last week, despite the dollar’s firm tone against the majors. Best EM performers on the week were MXN, KRW, and COP while the worst were ZAR, INR, and PEN. US jobs data poses the biggest risk to EM this week, as US yields have been falling ahead of the data.  Indeed, the current US 10-year yield of 2.74% is the lowest since February 6.  We remain cautious on EM FX, and do not think it can decouple from the majors if dollar strength continues. 

Caixin reports March China manufacturing PMI Monday, which is expected at 51.7 vs. 51.6 in February. The economic outlook remains solid, with growth likely to remain stable at around 6.5% this year. 

Thailand reports March CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 0.97% y/y vs. 0.42% in February. If so, it would be the highest rate since November but still below the 1-4% target range. Low inflation should allow the central bank to remain on hold for much of this year. The next policy meeting is May 16, rates are likely to be kept at 1.5% then. 

Indonesia reports March CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.35% y/y vs. 3.18% in February. If so, it would still be near the bottom of the 3-5% target range. Low inflation should allow the central bank to remain on hold for much of this year.  The next policy meeting is April 19, rates are likely to be kept at 4.25% then. 

Korea reports March CPI Tuesday, which is expected to remain steady at 1.4% y/y. If so, it would remain well below the 2% target. Low inflation should allow the central bank to hike rates slowly this year.  The next policy meeting is April 12, rates are likely to be kept at 1.5% then. Korea reports February current account Thursday. 

Turkey reports March CPI Tuesday, which is expected to rise 10.0% y/y vs. 10.3% in February. If so, it would be the lowest rate since July 2017 but still well above the 3-7% target range. Falling inflation should keep the central bank on hold for much of this year. Easing is most likely a 2019 story. The next policy meeting is April 25, rates are likely to be kept steady then. 

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