EURUSD Daily

Technical Outlook: EURUSD is testing resistance at the 1.07-handle where the 50% retracement of the March advance converges on the 61.8% line of the ascending pitchfork formation. Note that this level sits just above the monthly opening-range and if compromised on a close basis, would shift the focus higher in the pair heading deeper into April trade.

Support rests at the confluence of the 100-day moving average and the lower median-line parallel at 1.0625 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 1.0583. A breach above this region keeps the long-bias in play targeting the 61.8% retracement of the late-March decline at 1.0773 backed by 1.0800/20.

EURUSD 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights a near-term channel off the lows which could limit the advance on this stretch but the focus remains higher while above the weekly open at 1.0620 (interim support at the monthly open at 1.0560). From a trading standpoint I’ll favor fading weakness with a breach higher from here eyeing subsequent topside resistance targets at 1.0738, 1.0773& the upper median-line parallel (blue).

The range remains rather tight still so we’ll target 1/3 of the daily average true range (ATR) which yields targets of 20-24 pips per scalp. Keep in mind we have Eurozone CPI & PMI figures this week but the main focus will be on the first round of voting in the French elections scheduled for this weekend.