What is the issue? The UK has long had a strained relationship with the EU and has never been comfortable with the ever increased drive for greater integration and harmonization of rules and regulations coming from Brussels. As the EU has grown, more decisions are made by a qualified majority. Previously decision required unanimity. The shift weakens the power of a UK veto. The UK Prime Minister has called for a national referendum on continued UK membership of the EU. 

When will the referendum be held? The referendum has been scheduled for June 23. There is no threshold in terms of turnout or results.  A simple majority will decide the issue.  

The wording of the referendum is important. How will this one be worded? It appears to be straight forward. “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union, or should the UK leave the European Union.” The choice is to remain or leave.  

What will the UK decide?   It is not clear. Many polls show a close contest. The event markets show a more comfortable lead for those who want to remain in the EU. PredictIt, for example, shows 69% to 31% favoring staying in the EU. Boris Johnson, the charismatic Mayor of London, has cast his lot with those who want the UK to leave, and this was seen as an important development. Roughly half of the Tory members of parliament want to leave, and, at least, five cabinet ministers have come out in favor of leaving. That leaves half of the Tory MPs, Labour and the Lib-Dems favoring continued membership. Big business and the banks support continued EU membership.  Ironically, the more the UK establishment campaigns for the EU, the more it takes characteristics of an anti-elite movement. 

Did Prime Minister Cameron win some additional concessions from the EU? Cameron did seek some EU reforms, and this process kept the pro-EU camp in the UK largely sidelined until after the negotiations were completed. Cameron secured some agreements on a range of issues; from benefits to immigrants (and their children), safeguards for London as a financial center, and a clear opt-out from participation in an ever “closer” union. As the case in negotiations, Cameron did not get everything he wanted. Moreover, the agreement does not yet reach the level of a treaty commitment, and some of the Brexit camps have underscored the non-binding nature of the agreement.  

Print Friendly, PDF & Email