The recent turmoil in emerging markets hasn’t deterred the Federal Reserve from lifting interest rates at next month’s monetary policy meeting, according to analysts, Fed funds futures, and the recent trend in inflation-adjusted base money supply.

A handful pundits still wonder whether the escalating financial crisis in Turkey, which has weighed on stocks and bonds in emerging markets generally, could be a factor in delaying and perhaps even derailing the Fed’s plans for squeezing monetary policy. A possible trigger: a further deterioration in economic conditions in emerging markets in the wake of Turkey’s recent troubles.

“The risk of contagion is pretty high,” warns Robert Subbaraman, an emerging market economist at Nomura in Singapore.

But by one analyst’s reckoning, Turkey’s problems are a minor issue at most for US policy, at least for now.

“If you look at how Turkey is affecting US financial conditions, at the moment you barely see it,” observed Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro and a former Fed Board economist, earlier this week.

The futures markets for Fed funds agrees. As of this morning, the crowd’s pricing in a 96% probability that the central bank will raise its target rate 25 basis points to a 2.0%-to-2.25% range, based on CME data.

Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and a widely followed monetary analyst, told CNBC yesterday that the Fed isn’t likely to cease and desist with policy tightening. “In 2013, when we had the last bout of volatility, the Fed stayed off raising interest rate for some time. It is not clear it can do that right now because we have inflation numbers in the U.S. gaining strength.”

Headline consumer inflation ticked up to a 2.95% year-over-year pace in July, the strongest rise since 2011, based on unadjusted numbers for the consumer price index (CPI). Core CPI (less food and energy) is trending higher, too, increasing 2.35% last month vs. the year-ago level – the biggest jump since 2008.