02/21 Wednesday | 14:15 GMT | GBP BOE’s Carney, Broadbent, Haldane, and Tenreyro Speak

Traders should turn their attention to the group of Bank of England policymakers speaking this week given recent inflation and labor market data. Despite weakness on headline GDP (due out later in the week at +1.5% annualized), price pressures remain stubbornly high and real disposable income remains under pressure. Accordingly, amid strong signaling from BOE policymakers in recent weeks, the British Pound has started the year as the second best performing currency versus the US Dollar as rates markets have dragged forward the expected timing of the next 25-bps rate hike from August to May.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

02/21 Wednesday | 19:00 GMT | USD January FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting was a placeholder for the US Dollar in more ways than one. Just a month removed from the December rate hike, policymakers were staying the course. But the minutes themselves won’t leave a lasting impact this time around for a different reason: it was the last meeting under the purview of former Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Now that Jerome Powell sits atop the FOMC, and there is a new composition of relatively more hawkish voters, the path that the FOMC will take going forward will likely be somewhat different. Market participants will put little stock in the words of an outgoing Fed Chair and FOMC panel.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY Index, Gold

02/22 Thursday | 09:30 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (1Q P)

The second look at Q1’18 UK GDP is expected to show the UK economy grew by +1.5% annualized, the same rate reported at the initial release. The middling headline figure may be evident of the overhanging uncertainty the Brexit negotiations have wrought. A combination of stunted wage growth and rising inflation has crimped consumer expenditure, the prime growth driver in the UK. In effect, there is a state of mini-stagflation going on right now: save the labor market (which is doing quite well, thus the UK is not in a state of ‘true’ stagflation), inflation continues to run near +3% and headline GDP is below +2%. It seems doubtful that the release will be a catalyst for fresh Sterling gains unless a beat is in order.