Update: And there it is: GLENCORE DEBT INSURANCE COSTS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH; 5-YR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS RISE 207BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’S CLOSE TO 757 BASIS POINTS

Just last Thursday we asked whether Goldman was “preparing to sacrifice the next Lehman”, by which of course we meant the world’s largest commodity trading counterparty, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore (LSE:GLEN.L) (GLCNF) which just two weeks ago unveiled an unprecedented ”
doomsday” capital raising and deleveraging plan which, in retrospect, was not enough.

The punchline of Goldman’s report was that if commodity prices drop 5%, or even stay where they are, then Glencore’s investment grade rating – the most critical foundation of its entire trading operation where a downgrade to junk would launch a collateral and margin-call waterfall cascade a la AIG – would be lost. From Goldman:

Glencore’s trading business relies heavily on short-term credit to finance commodity deals and its financing costs would increase if it were to lose its Investment Grade credit rating. In addition, it could even lose some counterparties due to increased counterparty risk.

As we preparing to sacrifice the next Lehman, “what a junking of Glencore would do, is start a collateral demand waterfall cascade that the cash-strapped company simply would not be able to sustain.” So having laid out the strawman, Goldman next, very conveniently, explains just what would take for the Investment Grade trap to slam shut: “it would only take a c.5% fall in spot commodities prices for concerns about its credit rating to resurface.”

Of course, Glencore’s leverage to commodity prices was first explained in our March 2014 post, in which we said buying Glencore CDS is the best and easiest way to bet on a Chinese credit and commodity crunch.

Fast forward to Monday morning when those who bought into Glencore’s equity offering at 125p less than two weeks ago on September 16, are already down a whopping 43% (we won’t even bother calculating the loss since the company’s 2011 IPO), following the biggest daily drop in Glencore history, with the stock mauled some 27% at last check…