Yesterday’s brief hiccup in what has been an otherwise relentless rally in global risk assets is all but forgotten this morning, as European and Asian stocks, and US equity futures, all rise in quiet trading ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with the Dow set to make a 16th consecutive post-election all time high.

Global shares rose on Tuesday, helped by gains in banks after Italy’s largest lender unveiled a €13 billion euro share issue, while the dollar held steady before a Federal Reserve meeting expected to deliver higher interest rates. European bourses have been led higher this morning by consumer discretionary names after China reported a better than expected retail sales report. Meanwhile, focus has also been on Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit, which announced a share sale plan of €13bn and to cut 14,000 jobs. UniCredit launched Italy’s biggest share issue to clean up its balance sheet and boost profitability in the latest move to strengthen the Italian banking sector, which has been a major concern clouding the outlook for European stocks.

Meanwhile in the US, ongoing hopes for fiscal easing in the U.S. will drive growth, despite a report that the GOP may in fact block Trump’s proposed tax cuts, is pushing investors into the stock market, while bonds yields have been climbing amid bets on higher U.S. interest rates. With the market assigning 100 percent odds to a Fed rate hike Wednesday, investors are focusing on the path for 2017, and see a two-in-three chance of additional tightening by June. 

Aside from the well-known Trumpflation rally, markets are focused on the two-day Fed meeting which starts today and which is certain to conclude with only the second rise in U.S. interest rates since the global financial crisis. While a hike of 25 basis points in the Fed’s target range of 0.25-0.50 percent is priced in, investors will be examining the Fed’s statement and economic forecasts for any signs of how the central bank thinks Trump’s election has affected the outlook for growth and inflation.

“The big question is what sort of pace can we expect from the Fed for next year?” said Kaneo Ogino, director at foreign exchange research firm Global-info Co in Tokyo.

“The market has already priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike this time, so now the focus is on the outlook,” says Toshihiko Matsuno, a senior strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “There are many investors who haven’t been able to completely jump on the current rally, and they’ve been waiting for the market to dip.”

The looming Fed decision meant little changes to the FX landscape, with the dollar barely moving against a basket of major currencies. The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.0624 and the yen fell 0.2 percent to 115.24 per dollar. Sterling, however, rose 0.2 percent to $1.27, buoyed by comments from finance minister Philip Hammond that Britain should have a transition period to smooth its exit from the European Union.

Global shares, as measured by MSCI’s all-country world index, rose 0.1 percent but held below Monday’s 16-month high, touched as crude oil prices surged after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers reached their first deal since 2001 to reduce output.

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index shrugged off losses as the yen pulled off its highs and ended 0.5 percent higher, while Chinese shares reversed earlier declines amid strong economic data. “The market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate hike this time, so now the focus is on the outlook,” says Toshihiko Matsuno, a senior strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “There are many investors who haven’t been able to completely jump on the current rally, and they’ve been waiting for the market to dip.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was led by a 23% surge in Mediaset SpA after Vivendi SA said it may buy a 20% stake in the broadcaster. UniCredit was the second-biggest gainer with a 7.4% advance. The broader index rose 0.7 percent as of 9:52 a.m. London time, with trading volume 30 percent higher than the 30-day average at this time of day. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA climbed after a European Union official said the lender may be eligible for a precautionary recapitalization if efforts to plug the private sector fail.

European Eco Data update:

  • (GE) Nov. CPI EU Harmonised MoM 0.0%; est. 0.0%
  • (GE) Nov. CPI EU Harmonised YoY 0.7%; est. 0.7%
  • (SP) Nov. CPI EU Harmonised MoM 0.2%; est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • (SP) Nov. CPI EU Harmonised YoY 0.7%; est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • (SW) Nov. CPI MoM 0.0%; est. 0.0%, prior 0.3%
  • (SW) Nov. CPI YoY 1.4%; est. 1.4%, prior 1.2%
  • (IT) Oct. Industrial Production MoM 0.0%; est. 0.2%, prior -0.8%
  • (IT) Oct. Industrial Production WDA YoY 1.3%; est. 1.45%, prior 1.8%
  • (UK) Nov. CPI MoM 0.2%; est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • (UK) Nov. CPI YoY 1.2%; est. 1.1%, prior 0.9%
  • (UK) Nov. CPI Core YoY 1.4%; est. 1.3%, prior 1.2%
  • (GE) Dec. ZEW Survey Current Situation 63.5; est. 59, prior 58.8
  • (GE) Dec. ZEW Survey Expectations 13.8, est. 14, prior 13.8
  • (EC) Dec. ZEW Survey Expectations 18.1, prior 15.8
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