Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

Gold prices surged this week with the precious metal up nearly 2.7% to trade at 1348 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid continued weakness in broader risk assets with all three U.S. Major Indices down more than 4% on the week. For gold, the advance has taken prices through the monthly opening-range highs and keeps the focus higher heading into the monthly close.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week by 25bps as expected with the updated economic projections highlighting and upward revision to both growth and employment for 2018. Still, the interest rate dot plot continued to suggest that the committee remains on course for three hikes this year as inflation expectations remain firmly anchored at 1.9%.

For gold, the prospect of a more gradual normalization path from the central bank alleviated the recent downward pressure with mounting concerns over the potential for a global trade war stoking demand for the perceived safety of the yellow metal. From a technical standpoint, Gold has stretched into fresh monthly highs with the advance keeping the near-term focus higher heading into next week.

Gold Daily Price Chart

A breach above the objective monthly opening-range highs alongside an RSI resistance-trigger break keeps the focus higher in gold heading into the March close. Prices are now poised to post an outside weekly reversal candle off support (bullish). Note that daily momentum has been unable to break below 40 since the yearly high and keeps the momentum profile in a bullish posture for now- look for a weekly close above 60 to confirm.