It’s easy to see things the way you want, not how they are. Goldilocks or Frankenstein? Think about “peak expectations”

Saxo Bank CIO and Chief economist Steen Jakobsen made a presentation yesterday following the Fed rate hike announcement. The macro presentation Goldilocks or Frankenstein was on the Technology Winter, Monopolies and FED policy mistakes.

Via email, Jakobsen writes …

Dear All,

This is presentation I did yesterday at an event. The FOMC meeting to me indicates peak in expectations has been reached, confirming our long held view that the global credit impulse (which explains 60% of next 9-12 month activity) is kicking in negatively.

Monopoly operators like FANGS will be under pressure:

I did interview with Bloomberg yesterday which partly explains our reasoning: Zero Appetite for Tech Stocks Right Now.

We think there is risk of technology winter similar to what we saw in the 1970s and 1980s – the perception vs. reality of what technology can do is widest in history – there is an extreme naïve believe in the “benign” nature of it. That doesn’t mean technology will not do good or be productive but the expectations and what can be done and when is out of sync with reality. Furthermore the recent Facebook event also tells story of how these monopolies are out of control – intentionally or not.

Peter Garnry phrased it excellently in internal email to our team:

“….But even before this event self-driving car technology was over-hyped. Recent consensus at NIPS (the biggest AI conference) was that deep learning etc. where only deemed good at narrow applications and Hinton, the father of backpropagation igniting deep neural networks, has even hinted that self-driving cars are not around the corner.

Based on yesterday’s event I’m revising up the probability that we will see a new AI winter like the one in the 1970s and 1980s.”