Sentix conducts investor surveys in Europe. Usually, it is the sentiment survey that draws attention. It will be reported next wee. Since 2012, it has been asking specific questions about the risk that monetary union breaks up.  

The latest results show that 17.5% of investors expect the eurozone disintegrate within the next 12 months. It has risen from 15.7% in August but is below the 20.3% in July (following the UK referendum).  

What draws attention today is Sentix post that shows a change in risk perceptions. As this Great Graphic illustrates, investors attribute a higher risk to Italy leaving the EMU than Greece. Moreover, it is not a spike, but a gradual increase in the risk that Italy leaves, while the risk that Greece leaves are stable after easing near midyear.  

According to the Sentix, a survey of more than a thousand investors 9.9% think Italy leaves within a year. In comparison 8.5% expect Greece to leave. The next three candidates for departure are Portugal (3.5%), Finland (2.9%) and France (1.5%).

Investors have several concerns about Italy. Earlier the banking system, the non-performing loans, and the need for new capital weighed on sentiment. More recently, the referendum next month on changing the perfect bicameralism by stripping the Senate of its powers and members, upon which Renzi had initially tied his tenure, has emerged as the chief threat what passes for political stability in a country with its third unelected prime ministers.    

The effort to weaken the Senate is the second prong of Renzi’s political reform agenda. This first prong is called the Italicum, and it was approved by referendum in the Spring. It will make is easier for the party with the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies to govern by giving it bonus seats (shades of Greece?). It seems that this effort assumed the success of the referendum to change the de-fang the Senate. This seems less likely now.