The NYSE was hit with some serious technical damage this week as it broke below its uptrend line. I think this is a big deal.

At some point we’ll get a significant bounce, but it will be difficult to exceed the January high anytime soon. I am wondering if the NYSE has seen the high for this bull market?
 

The 30Y is challenging major resistance. This chart has the look of a multi-year, inverse, head-and-shoulders bottom.

I am now questioning the general assumption that bond buyers are responding to the late-stage inflation showing up in the economy. In my opinion, this tick up in longer-term rates is related to the tax cuts and the already huge federal deficit.

Where are the rating agencies? Why aren’t they screaming about these deficits? We are on track for a one trillion dollar deficit at a time when the economy is in really good shape.
 

When Copper peeked up into a new high 52-week high in late December, I jumped on board the inflation train. But copper broke below its uptrend this week, and I am now reducing my exposure to the inflation-sensitive area.

Bad trading on my part because the inflation-sensitive stocks were not acting properly, and, besides that, the market indicators were excessive and clearly indicating a problem. I should have shut down the buy button on my computer.
 

The US Dollar is bouncing off the lows, and the recent strength is negatively impacting the inflation-sensitive stocks.
 

The ECRI index has surged in the last five weeks, and, at the same time, the M2 money supply growth rate has continued to decline. Is this good or bad for stocks?

The ECRI index points to economic strength over the next few months, I am going to leave it at that because I am not sure how to interpret this chart at the moment.
 

Outlook Summary:

Higher rates are now a headwind for US stocks. The recent tax cut, the $300 billion spending increase, and the already out-of-control federal deficit are a set up for a very dangerous spike in interest rates.

The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is down.
The short-term trend is down. Watching for the next short-term uptrend.