Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. From my seat, the state of the Trump administration appears to have taken the place of tensions with North Korea this week in terms of what markets are most concerned about. This may be a temporary thing during what is traditionally prime vacation season on Wall Street. So, with volume light and trading desks thinly staffed, we should probably expect volatility to continue for a while.

Since it’s the start of a new week, let’s now focus on our objective review the key market models and indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this weekly exercise is to remove any subjective notions one might have in an effort to stay in line with what “is” happening in the markets. So, let’s get started.

The State of the Trend

We start each week with a look at the “state of the trend.” These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.

Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend Model remains negative. 
  • Both the short- and intermediate-term Channel Breakout Systems are on sell signals. A short-term buy would occur at 2480 and an intermediate-term buy would require a move over 2491. 
  • The intermediate-term Trend Model has also slipped to moderately negative. We’re on the lookout for a “lower low” below 2409. 
  • The long-term Trend Model remains positive. 
  • The Cycle Composite continues to point lower. 
  • The Trading Mode models continue to suggest stocks are in a mean-reverting environment.

    • The State of Internal Momentum

    Next up are the momentum indicators, which are designed to tell us whether there is any “oomph” behind the current trend…

    Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Model remains negative. 
  • Our intermediate-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Model is also negative. The combination suggests weak internal breadth. 
  • The Industry Health Model hasn’t experienced any dramatic change at this point but continues to trend lower within the neutral zone. 
  • The short-term Volume Relationship is negative and up-volume is near the lows of the year. 
  • The intermediate-term Volume Relationship continues to weaken. 
  • All three “thrust” indicators are solidly negative. 
  • In short, momentum remains weak.
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