The headline existing home sales growth declined with the authors saying sales “experienced their largest decline on an annual basis in over three years”.
Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales
The rolling averages have been slowing in 2017, and they marginally decelerated this month. The rolling averages are now marginally in contraction. Housing inventory is now at historical lows for Januarys – and if you do not have enough houses for sale – then that means home sales cannot improve.
Econintersect Analysis
Unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 0.4 % month-over-month, down 1.9 % year-over-year – sales growth rate trend accelerated using the 3 month moving average.
Unadjusted price rate of growth decelerated 0.2 % month-over-month, up 4.7 % year-over-year – price growth rate trend marginally accelerated using the 3 month moving average.
The homes for sale unadjusted inventory improved this month compared to last month, but remains historically low for Januarys, and is down 9.5 % from inventory levels one year ago).
NAR reported:
Sales down 3.2 % month-over-month, down 4.8 % year-over-year.
Prices up 5.8 % year-over-year
The market expected annualized sales volumes of 5.530 M to 5.730 M (consensus 5.650 million) vs the 5.38 million reported.
The graph below presents unadjusted home sales volumes.
Here are the headline words from the NAR analysts:
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