The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S improved this month – and the authors say “While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months.”.

Analyst Opinion of the Leading Economic Index

Because of the significant backward revisions, I do not trust this index.

This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market (from Bloomberg) expected this index’s value at 0.3 % to 0.9 % (consensus 0.6 %) versus the +1.0 % reported.

ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is forecasting slower growth over the next six months.

Additional comments from the economists at The Conference Board add context to the index’s behavior.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January
Economic Growth to Continue Through First Half of 2018

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. increased 1.0 percent in January to 108.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in December, and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018. While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The leading indicators reflect an economy with widespread strengths coming from financial conditions, manufacturing, residential construction, and labor markets.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 103.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.