Economists expected significant wage growth in the jobs report. Nope. The surprise was in the strength of jobs.
Initial Reaction
Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 313,000 topping the consensus estimate of 205,000 and even the top estimate of 230,000 by a wide margin.
The household survey (Table A) shows the baseline unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% for the fifth consecutive month.
U-6 unemployment, which counts involuntary part-time jobs was steady at 8.2%.
The average workweek rose by 0.1 hours. Year-over-year the workweek is up 0.1 hours. so ignore any mainstream comments about strength of the workweek.
Those expecting wages to jump based on Phillips Curve nonsense were disappointed again. Average hourly earnings rose 0.15%. Year-over-year wages are up 2.6%.
The labor force rose by 806,000. More people are looking for jobs.
Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Nonfarm Payroll: +313,000 – Establishment Survey
Employment: +785,000 – Household Survey
Unemployment: +22,000 – Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: +171,000 – Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: +194,000 – Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: flat at 4.1% – Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: +0.0 to 8.2% – Household Survey
Civilian Noninstitutional Population: +154,000
Civilian Labor Force: +806,000 – Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: -653,000 – Household Survey
Participation Rate: +0.3 to 63.0 – Household Survey
Employment Report Statement
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.
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