Overnight Markets And News

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.37% and European stocks are up +0.66% as technology stocks recover after two days of losses. Also, European automakers are higher on M&A activity after Renault SA and Nissan Motor were said to be in merger talks. Strength in Germany’s labor market is another positive for European equities after the German Mar unemployment rate fell to a record low 5.3%. Trading activity was subdued ahead of the long holiday weekend with the U.S. and Europe closed Friday and Europe also closed Monday for the Easter holiday. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.61%, Hong Kong +0.24%, China +1.22%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia -0.52%, Singapore +1.34%, South Korea +0.64%, India closed for holiday. China’s Shanghai Composite recovered from losses in the last hour of trade and closed higher on reports of buying from state-sponsored funds. Wednesday’s rally in USD/JPY to a 2-week high boosted Japanese exporter stocks as the Nikkei Stock Index closed higher.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.19%) is up +0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY-0.32%) is down -0.29%.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 +0-015) are up +2.5 ticks.

Philadelphia Fed President Harker told the WSJ he raised his Fed rate hike estimate for this year to a total of three 25 bp rate increases, up from two rate hikes he projected in Jan, saying “it’s more the firming of inflation that has moved me from two to three” projected rate increases this year.

The German Mar unemployment change fell -19,000 to 2.373 million, better than expectations of -15,000. The Mar unemployment rate fell -0.1 to a record low of 5.3%, right on expectations.

UK Mar GfK consumer confidence rose +3 to a 10-month high of -7, stronger than expectations of no change at -10.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +1,000 to 230,000, previous +3,000 to 229,000) and continuing claims (expected +37,000 to 1.865 million, previous -57,000 to 1.828 million), (2) Feb personal spending (expected +0.1%, Jan +0.2%) and Feb personal income (expected +0.4%, Jan +0.4%), (3) Feb PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jan +0.4% m/m and +1.7% y/y) and Feb core PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y), (4) USDA weekly Export Sales, (5) Mar Chicago PMI (expected +0.1 to 62.0, Feb -3.8 to 61.9), (6) final-March University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index (expected unch at 102.0, prelim-Mar +2.3 to 102.0), (7) USDA planting intentions and USDA Q1 quarterly grain stocks, (8) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook at an NABE luncheon, (9) USDA Q1 Hogs & Pigs Inventory.

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