Every year can be defined by a few key events that shape the entire outcome and affect everybody’s lives. With that in mind, here are our three boldest predictions for what will end up being some of the biggest headlines in 2016, and how to prepare your portfolio.

Investors got treated like the proverbial rented mule in the opening two weeks of 2016. Equities behaved a bit better in the back half of the month, and thanks primarily to a big rally on the last trading day of January actually posted slight gains. Still, the major indices were down five to eight percent for the month, and January will now be recorded as the worst monthly performance in years. Small caps, biotech, and other high beta sectors of the market were hit even harder and are in official bear market territory.

So what will February bring? Barring any major geopolitical event or the domestic economy slipping into a recession, I don’t think there is much chance that the second month of the year treats investors as poorly as the opening stanza of 2016 did. That does not mean we will see a substantial rally from what look like at least somewhat oversold levels, but February should see a bit more sunshine than January. Here are three predictions for the new month that I feel pretty good about right now.

Bold Prediction #1: The Fed Will Grow More Accommodative

The big rally in the market on Friday, January 29th was primarily triggered by the surprise decision of the bank of Japan to move to a negative interest rate policy or NIRP for the first time in its history. Whether this will help the Japanese stock market or economy in the long run absent long overdue structural reforms is certainly debatable. However, it did cause investors to rejoice at least for a day, and global markets put their rally cap on. It also caused the Yen to appreciate nearly two percent against the greenback.

More importantly, it really made the Federal Reserve which is wary of an even stronger dollar more unlikely to stick with their forecast for four quarter point hikes in 2016. The market has already come to the conclusion it is more than likely that there will only be two hikes this year. However, having the central bank get on the same page would be beneficial for equities. 

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