The ISM Manufacturing survey declined insignificantly and remained in expansion. The key internals remained in expansion. The Markit PMI manufacturing Index, also released today, is in positive territory but declined.

Analyst Opinion of the ISM Manufacturing Survey

Based on these surveys and the district Federal Reserve Surveys, one would expect the Fed’s Industrial Production index growth rate to modestly decline. Overall, surveys do not have a high correlation to the movement of industrial production (manufacturing) since the Great Recession.

From Bloomberg/Econoday:

From the Markit PMI Manufacturing Index:

Operating conditions improve at quickest rate for nine months

• PMI at 53.9 in November
• Production and new orders increase solidly
• Output prices raised to greatest extent since December 2013
• November survey data indicated improved operating conditions across the US manufacturing sector. The upturn was supported by solid, albeit slightly weaker, increases in output and new orders. Staffing levels meanwhile rose at a robust pace, despite the rate of job creation softening since October. However, signs of capacity pressures persisted, with backlogs of work rising again. Output charges rose at the fastest pace since December 2013. Input prices also rose at a quicker rate that was steep overall. Business confidence was robust, and reached its highest since January 2016.
• The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) registered 53.9 in November, down from 54.6 in October. The latest index reading signalled robust, albeit slower, overall growth in the manufacturing sector. The latest upturn was in line with the long-run series average.

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