Expiry day for the November natural gas contract had all the excitement one would expect, as prices initially gapped down last evening and continued lower into the early morning before reversing higher through the day. Strong physical prices seemed to help the November contract expire with strength, as it expired flat to its settle on Friday. 

We can clearly see how the strong November contract kept the winter natural gas strip from declining even further on the day. 

The result was the narrowest expiry of the X/Z November/December spread in recent years at just 1.3 cents. 

Initial price weakness was not surprising today, as we maintained a “Slightly Bearish” natural gas sentiment. Medium-range warm trends and modest weekend GWDD losses put $3.1 in play again. 

Meanwhile, traders are already starting to look ahead to Thursday’s EIA print following a bearish number compared to expectations last week. Some of the first storage data is becoming available, with Columbia Gas Transmission (TCO) reporting its first storage draw of the season (though a decent injection is still expected too announced nationally Thursday).