Our analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales declined compared to the previous month – and there was a decline of the rolling averages. Even with inflation adjustments, business sales are in contraction. The inventory-to-sales ratios remain at recessionary levels.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 2.1 % month-over-month, anddown 4.0 % year-over-year
unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) down 2.1 % year-over-year
unadjusted sales three month rolling average compared to the rolling average 1 year ago decelerated 0.4 % month-over-month, and is down 3.1 % year-over-year.
Unadjusted Business Sales – Unadjusted (blue line), Unadjusted but Inflation Adjusted (red line), and 3 month rolling Average (yellow line)
unadjusted business inventories growth shrunk 0.2 % month-over-month (up2.1 % year-over-year with the three month rolling averages improving), and the inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.38 which is at recessionary levels (well above average for this month). However, these ratios may be distorting the real picture as inventory values may not be properly revalued for inflation (first in, first out).
US Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales down 0.2% month-over-month, down 2.7 % year-over-year (it was reported down 2.8 % last month).
seasonally adjusted inventories were unchanged month-over-month (up 2.0 % year-over-year), inventory-to-sales ratios were up from 1.31 one year ago – and are now 1.38.
market expectations (from Bloomberg) were for inventory growth of 0.0 % to 0.3 % (consensus 0.1 %) versus the actual of -0.2 %.
The way data is released, differences between the business releases pumped out by the U.S. Census Bureau are not easy to understand with a quick reading. The entire story does not come together until the Business Sales Report (this report) comes out. At this point, a coherent and complete business contribution to the economy can be understood.
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