Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices are down for the third consecutive week with the precious metal off by .43% to trade at 1267 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Bullion closed the month of October up just 0.28% and continues to trade within that monthly range into the November open.

A mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday saw gold prices drop to the lowest levels of the week. The headline print missed consensus estimates with a read of just 261K, with surprise drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings came in soft at 2.4% y/y, with the Labor Force Participation rate dropping its lowest level since May at just 62.7%. The release is unlikely to waver the Fed’s plan to raise rates next month with Fed Fund Futures still showing an 80% + probability the central bank will hike by 25bps in December.

The dollar saw a brief sell-off before paring losses into fresh weekly highs despite the soft report with gold slumping lower into the close. It’s a quiet week for U.S. data and the focus heading deeper into November trade is on a reaction at key support / resistance zones in bullion prices and the DXY respectively.