U.S. economic output is widely expected to post substantially slower growth in the government’s preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP that’s scheduled for release this Thursday (Oct. 29). Exactly how much deceleration we’ll see vs. Q2’s strong 3.9% rise (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) is a matter of some debate. Indeed, the projections vary from tepid expectations that border on stall-speed assumptions up to a moderate pace that’s still worrisome but strong enough to fend off the view that a new recession is near.

Let’s start with The Capital Spectator’s outlook: the average Q3 GDP estimate via several econometric forecasts ticked up to 2.5% from 2.2% in last month’s update. This estimate is currently the poster boy for the high end of assumptions from the wider world of macro forecasts. But here too there’s a spectrum of figures behind The Capital Spectator’s average prediction, ranging from 2.0% to 2.9%.

Substantially darker estimates can be found elsewhere, including the Atlanta Fed’s Oct. 20 forecast of only 0.9%. Wells Fargo has a similarly diminished outlook of just 1.0% for Q3 GDP growth. By contrast, BMO Capital’s Oct. 23 estimate is a relatively upbeat 2.2%.

“Thursday’s GDP number is not going to look good on the surface, but if you look at consumer spending and housing and business spending, the numbers are going to be closer to 4%,” RBS’ Michelle Girard told CNBC yesterday.

Perhaps, but if the headline growth rate stumbles in Thursday’s preliminary GDP report for Q3, the crowd will have a tough time focusing on underlying details that paint a brighter profile.

Here’s a summary of The Capital Spectator’s Q3:2015 average estimate vs. recent history and forecasts from various sources:

Click on image to enlarge

Here are the various forecasts that are used to calculate CapitalSpectator.com’s average estimate:

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