Retail sales were down according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages were little changed.

Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales

Despite the headlines, this was not a bad report – especially if one considers the rolling averages.

Things to consider when viewing this data:

it is not inflation adjusted.

the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data was little changed

our analysis says this month’s growth was above average for the growth seen in the last 12 months..

The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment do not correlate.

Backward data revisions were upward.

Econintersect Analysis:

unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 1.4 % month-over-month, and up5.1 % year-over-year.

unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.1 % month-over-month, up 5.1 % year-over-year.

 

unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 3.5 % year-over-year

this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.

in the seasonally adjusted data – the major weakness were widespread. There was significant strength innon-store retailers.

U.S. Census Headlines:

seasonally adjusted sales down 0.3 % month-over-month, up 3.6 % year-over-year.

the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):

seasonally adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.0 % to 0.5 % +0.3 % -0.3 % Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.1 % to 0.8 % +0.5 % +0.0 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.4 % -0.2 % Control Group – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.4 % +0.0 %

Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)