Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data. Our analysis paints a softer picture of retail sales.

Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales

Things to consider when viewing this data:

it is not inflation adjusted – and inflation in this sector is now running around 2 %.

the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data significantly declined.

there was growth in retail sales employment this month

our analysis says this month was much worse than last month, and the rolling averages declined.

The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment are now correlating.

Backward data revisions were mixed.

Econintersect Analysis:

unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 3.4 % month-over-month, and up 2.1 % year-over-year.

unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth decelerated 1.1 % month-over-month, 4.0 % year-over-year.

unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 0.1 % year-over-year

this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.

in the seasonally adjusted data – there was strength only in non-store retailers, health & personal care stores, and furniture stores. Everything else was relatively weak.

U.S. Census Headlines:

seasonally adjusted sales up 0.1 % month-over-month, up 5.7 % year-over-year.

the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):

seasonally adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.0 % to 0.9 % +0.2 % +0.1 % Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.3 % to 0.7 % +0.2 % +0.2 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.3 % +0.2 % Control Group – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.3 %  

Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)