For the second month in a row, Saudi oil production both declined or rose, depending on which sources one believes, OPEC’s latest market report showed. Saudi’s self-reported production declined by 111Kbbl/d from 10,011 to 9,900kbpd the lowest since January…

… even as secondary sources showed a second consecutive increase in production, from 9,809 in January to just why of 10mmpd in March.

And while Saudi production may be rising according to secondary sources, overall OPEC production declined driven by a steep drop in Libyan output where geopolitical developments have prevented the nation’s oil fields from producing at capacity. Total OPEC output was said to have declined by -153k b/d (-0.5%) m/m in March to 31.928m b/d, as 9 out of 13 members reduced output. In addition to Libya, Venezuela crude production also extended its decline in March.

Curiously, OPEC said that while oil inventories shrank in developed nations as its production cuts took effect, it forecast that rivals in the U.S. shale industry are growing stronger. The cartel boosted estimates for U.S. production growth by 200,000 barrels a day, to 540,000 a day as a recovery in investment helps the nation’s shale-oil explorers resume drilling. The number of rigs in operation has more than doubled since May, according to Baker Hughes Inc., while government data shows U.S. production has recovered to its highest in more than a year Bloomberg reported. Overall non-OPEC production is now expected to grow by 580tb/d. From the report:

For 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.58 mb/d, up by 176 tb/d from the previous MOMR, to average 57.89 mb/d. This is due to higher expectations for US growth – revised up by 200 tb/d – along with lower declines in Colombia and China following revisions of 23 tb/d and 26 tb/d, respectively. Offsetting some of this increase are downward revisions to expectedgrowth in Canada and Brazil has been adjusted down by 53 tb/d and 56 tb/d, respectively.

From the supply point of view, it is evident that there are many projects waiting to come on stream in the coming years. The period 2017-2019 is likely to see the largest production increase from mega projects in the industry’s history. Large projects in Brazil, Russia, Canada and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to reach completion and add to global supply between 2017 and 2019. Combined with new shale output, these projects could add another 1 mb/d in the coming years. Many of these projects, costing billions of dollars and taking many years to bring online, were initiated back when oil prices traded at $100/b.