The gold to silver ratio has been used for years to indicate buy and sell zones in both gold and silver. Why?

  • At BOTTOMS in both gold and silver, based on 40 years of history, silver prices have fallen farther and faster than gold. Hence the gold/silver ratio reaches a relative high.
  • At tops in both gold and silver the ratio is often low since silver rises more rapidly than gold. As Jim Sinclair says, “silver is gold on steroids.”
  • Examine the following graph of the gold to silver ratio (monthly data) for the past 40 years. I have circled the six most extreme highs in the ratio with green ovals.

    At 5 of 6 extremes in the ratio silver was at or near a long term bottom. The one minor exception was when silver bottomed in November of 2001 at $4.01 and the ratio peaked later in May 2003. Otherwise the ratio was quite accurate at indicating major silver lows.

    For more confirmation, assume a silver buy signal occurs when an extreme in the gold to silver ratio has been reached, and the weekly silver price closes above its 5 week moving average.

    Monthly Ratio Extremes       Silver (weekly) closes above

    (green ovals above)                  5 week MA

    June 1982                                July 2, 1982

    August 1986                             September 5, 1986

    February 1991                         March 8, 1991

    May 2003                                  April 11, 2003

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