This post will use Weinsteins Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis.

First let’s start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market.

Fast forward to today and we can see that the 30ema seems to have found a bottom but in 2017, it seems to be a midpoint for price and is not yet providing strong support at major lows for either Gold or GDX.  My last chart on GDX shows a potential Fractal.  Will history repeat?  Time will Tell.

My last chart is on the USD.  If the USD is close to finding a Yearly Cycle Low (YCL), the 30ema should still continue to provide resistance near Intermediate Cycle Tops if the USD’s 15 Year SuperCycle has topped.

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