In our Silver Price Forecast 2018 which we wrote last October we explained why we did a neutral trend forecast for the price of silver in 2018, with a bearish bias. We also said that we had a hard time forecasting the 2018 silver price because of the hard-to-read setup, and we promised readers to continuously follow up until we start seeing clear signals in the silver market which could lead to a price target.

This is what we wrote last October:

Let’s get things straight:

  • As long as silver does not rise above $21 it has not broken out in which case it is trendless or bearish.
  • If silver falls below $16 (and stays below 16 for at least 3 consecutive weeks) it is bearish.
  • Between $16 and $21 silver is neutral.
  • Moreover, $14 is a major price level as it marks the lows of the last 9 years. If silver sets a major double bottom between 14 and 15 in 2018 then (only then) will we become very bullish for the long term.

However, we are very closely watching what happens near the $14 price level for reasons outlined above. That is to get an idea on the secular support levels. Similarly, once silver starts rising in the first months of 2018 (seasonal strength) we are closely watching the $21 area as secular resistance.

Now, fast forward to March 2018, we start seeing a couple of signals which might be encouraging for silver bulls.

Let’s revise our thesis based on these 3 must-see silver charts for 2018.

Note: we are not going to analyze news items, fundamental trends, supply/demand, as that’s noise for the future price of silver in 2018 or any year beyond: the silver to gold ratio may be high or low, gold or silver may be compared with a zombie, there may or may not be correlations with economics data … we simply do not care. Why? Because we remain firm in our method and vision which is (1) our 1/99 rule suggests that only 1% of news has 99% of value and (2) the vast majority of news is just that, news, in the traditional sense of the word, without any value for investors.

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