There are three issues that the EU insists are addressed before formal discussions about the post-Brexit UK-EU relationship. These are EU citizens’ rights in the UK, the British financial commitment, and the North Ireland border with the Republic of Ireland.  

Progress has been reported on the EU citizens’ rights, and speculation suggests that UK Prime Minister May is prepared to shortly (within the next two weeks) raise her to offer closer to the figure that some EU officials have mentioned (60 bln euros). Many had expected the financial negotiations to be the most difficult, but it now seems that the Irish border issue may be the most intractable. In fact, it may turn out to be the deal breaker in the sense that a solution may not be achievable in the next two weeks. This, in turn, may prevent the EU Summit next month to allow the new phase in the negotiations to begin.  

Why is it intractable? Don’t all three parties (Ireland, UK, and EU) agree that a hard border is not acceptable? The problem is that Ireland and the EU want Northern Ireland to remain in the EU’s common market and remain subject to the EU customs and internal market rules even after Brexit. Ireland is also concerned that a hard border would undermine the Belfast Agreement (aka Good Friday Agreement), which was vital in the peace process. Peace between the Catholic and Protestant parts of Ireland was forged within the EU framework.

 There was one major political group in Northern Ireland that opposed the agreement. The Democratic Unionists. UK Prime Minister May changed the fiscal priorities of the Tory government that she inherited from Cameron. She also maneuvered to hold snap elections, which went against the spirit of the election schedule that Cameron’s government implemented. The main thing she kept was Cameron’s willingness to make binding the non-binding referendum.In any event, upon losing the Tory parliamentary majority, May sought out a coalition with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionists. 

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